Aim Points in the U.S. Nuclear Arsenal | Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Aim Points in the U.S. Nuclear Arsenal | Center for Strategic and International Studies
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Tag Archives: Putin
The Trumping of America
Donald Trump saying “YOUR FIRED”
NBC Upfront for 2005-2006 Fall Line up, at Radio City Music Hall, New Tork City. May 16, 2005.
John Spellman / Retna Ltd.
When Trump threw his toupee into the ring back in June, I dismissed him, like most Americans did, as a pretender grandstanding to satisfy his ego. The latest polls have him more than ten points ahead of the closest Republican contender, and giving Hillary Clinton a serious run for her money in the national general election. How is this possible?
Trump the “straight shooter”
Trump seems to have no filter, and this resonates with Americans sick of politicians speaking from both sides of their mouths. Folks are willing to overlook his faux pas and blunt insults because it appears to be honest, and that’s preferable to business as usual from the beltway. I totally get being disgusted with lying, cheating politicians.
What I don’t understand is how Trump supporters can’t see his bullshit for what it is. He is one of the greatest salesmen in the world, and perhaps that’s why when he makes things up, people swallow the hook. He’s lied about his own draft record, claiming he had a high draft number, when actually he had multiple student deferments, and recently insulted John McCain for being a POW. He lied about his net worth, claiming that it exceeded TEN BILLION DOLLARS (caps from The Donald) when his net worth is actually 2.9 billion, according to a recent Bloomberg investigation.
He has called global warming a hoax, insulted Mexican immigrants, though he is sure that “some of them are good people,” and laughed off sexual assaults within the U.S. military. He claims that he invented his campaign slogan, when he adopted Regan’s.
Trump the tough guy
Trump presents himself as a tough guy. He’s going to take America back from China. He’s going to stand up to Putin, and challenge him to a knife fight in front of the White House, one shirtless ego against another. He’s going to go to war with Iran, because, well, Iran. He will put boots on the ground to stop ISIS, and the tide of radical Islam will flee before his mighty shadow.
Right.
He says these things, and people believe him because he seems to believe it himself, transmuting his own cognitive dissonance to the rest of a nation hungry to believe.
And that is deadly, end-of-the-world stuff. Saying a thing is true doesn’t make it so. We need a president who is level-headed and has a firm grasp upon geopolitics. Someone who speaks softly, and carries a big stick. Trump is the opposite. He shouts, rather than speaks, drowning out anyone who dares to contradict him.
Smashing the field
He has gutted his fellow Republican contenders, relishing in the insults and meanness, pandering to the cameras. The other politicians don’t seem to know how to fight Trump, and they’re getting kicked in the head while he gloats over them like the puffed up school yard bully that he is. The scary thing is that people like this.
Anyone who consistently refers to themselves in the third person is unfit to lead a nation.
Muddy and Vague
His platform on a wide range of important issues, from immigration to the economy is vague. He makes great claims without the means to back them up, which is typical of politicians, but particularly ironic coming from a man running as an anti-politician.
The 2016 election
Don’t underestimate Trump. He might win. What seems more likely, though, is that he will deliver the election to Hillary. That’s probably why Bill Clinton called the Donald on the phone, encouraging him to run.
Trump’s negative ratings among voters remain high. He’s not polling well among women, and has all but lost the crucial Latino vote. In the vital swing states of Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, he trails both Clinton in a match up. Since 1960, the road to the Oval Office goes through these states.
Republicans have good reason to worry. So does the rest of the world.
CONTRARY BRIN: International Tensions: Russia, China and Putin!
The Divided States of America
There is much gnashing of the teeth and shrill screaming about politics these days. Everyone with internet access has an opinion and a voice. Many people are outraged about something. Social media is choked with hate, politicians point fingers, and any sort of reasonable discourse seems to have fled the country.
The things people are screaming about are distractions, while the things they should be paying attention to go largely unnoticed. We, the people, are being played.
Money and politics
Both parties are equally beholden to the almighty dollar. There are no good guys, as far as I can see, and those who actually seem to have a heart for the American people and are willing to buck the system have no chance of actually being able to be a force for positive change because their voices are drowned out by the hatred, the money, and the discord. That seems to be the idea.
Republican Governor John Kaisch of Ohio announced his bid for the 2016 election; he is an example of a moderate who has accomplished great things in his home state, and of course, he has no chance at winning. The Koch Brothers won’t be helping him.
Hillary Clinton portrays herself as the champion of the middle class, yet she is an example of the ivory tower liberals who are not only disconnected from most of America, but who also reap millions in corporate campaign contributions. She is above all else a political animal.
The banking industry, working behind the shadows is one place where true power resides. Energy is another. Power has almost nothing to do with politics, and is essentially the ability inflict one’s will upon another. The United States possesses the strongest military the world has ever seen.
But the real power lies not in the new F-35, the stealth bomber, or the ICBM, but in those who decide when and where these weapons will be used. Where we will go to war and why.
Be angry and mean and certain!
That’s what they want. Whoever the hell they are.
It doesn’t seem to matter who the figureheads are, though I’d love to believe otherwise. We can argue about guns and rebel flags and gay rights, and it appears that there is profit somewhere for someone in that discord. We howl about Obama and lose respect for the office of the President, and that’s just fine with those guys. They’re playing both sides of the fence, and are laughing at us from their private islands.
The insults and name calling between parties has never been worse, and it’s spilled over from Congress to Main Street and even the dinner table.
So what should we be paying attention to?
The way money buys power. Decisions like Citizens united. Corporate welfare.
Climate change. It’s happening. The planet is growing warmer according to 99% of climatologists. Sea levels will rise, weather patterns will shift. Water shortages and droughts will worsen in some areas, while other parts of the world will see floods.
ISIS, China, and Russia.
The Islamic state is spreading like wildfire, and now boasts a well organized and supplied army. The guys behind the guys don’t know what to do about them yet, and the whole Arab spring caught them off guard, along with the power vacuum in Iraq. The middle east is nuke waiting to blow. The aftershock will shake the world.
China is on course to overtake the United States in military power over the next two decades. They have an aircraft carrier, a fleet of submarines, and the desire to project power into the Indian Ocean and South Pacific. They are building islands out of the sea, placing air strips on them. China owns trillions of dollars in U.S. debt and manipulates its currency to the great detriment of the United States. Of course, the multinational corporations don’t care about what is good for the United States. They’re in the business of making money for shareholders, so will continue to ship jobs to China because it’s good for the bottom line.
Russia is eager to reclaim its stature as a superpower, and Putin, a former KGB officer with an ego the size of his country, is unpredictable, ruthless, and bent upon taking more land and resources. The annexation of Crimea proves this, along with the war in the Ukraine, the relentless incursions into NATO airspace, and threatening posture of flights off the U.S. coast. Bombers within forty miles of California? Yes. That happened this week, again. Russia has simulated nuclear attacks against Sweden, and they are actively militarizing the arctic, building bases to go after oil resources as the ice packs melt.
Ourselves
More dangerous to this great nation than these other threats is the one we present to ourselves.
For a house divided cannot stand.
amazon.com/author/seantsmith
Russia Rising: The Cold War Gets Arctic
The search for a Russian submarine off the coast of Sweden conjures images of Tom Clancy novels, and sheds light on a conflict brewing for generations. The cold war never ended, and it’s more dangerous now than it ever was. The U.S. military is paying attention; the rest of us should, too, for our lives and the lives of our children depend upon it. This is not the time to be slashing our defense spending, and in particular, thinning the ranks of our military by giving the boot to combat veterans and officers with experience in the name of slashing budgets. It’s ludicrous and dangerous. I’ve personally spoken to many active duty personnel who are outraged by these cuts, this purge, and while I at first thought it was some kind of spin, I’m now certain it is true. It scares me. Russia is rising. In the Ukraine, Russia sends in troops under the guise of humanitarian response, ignores the rest of the world, and pursues its own expansionist goals with methodical, ruthless abandon. There is method to their madness.
U.S. fighter jets intercepted Russian bombers off Alaska and California in June, another in a long string of recent potentially deadly aerial encounters. Four long-range Russian Tu-95 Bear-H bombers, accompanied by an aerial refueling tanker, flew into the U.S. Air Defense Identification Zone, an area extending 200 miles from the North American coast, off Alaska, where they were intercepted by U.S. F-22 fighter jets.
Two of the Russian bombers peeled off and headed west, while the other two flew south and were identified by U.S. F-15 fighters within 50 miles of the California coast.
Gen. Herbert “Hawk” Carlisle, in a presentation to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said this:
“They’ve come with their long-range aviation off the coast of California; they circumnavigated Guam,” Carlisle said, showing a picture of a U.S. F-15 fighter “intercepting” a Russian bomber off the Pacific island.
In April, a Russian SU-24 fighter jet made a dozen close-range passes by an American warship, the USS Donald Cook, in the Black Sea in what the Pentagon called a “provocative” move while tension continued to ramp up in the region.
Earlier this week, two Canadian F-18 fighter jets intercepted a Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea, as Russian military activity increased in the area.
in September, NORAD reported that Canadian and U.S. jets scrambled and intercepted six Russian aircraft within the Air Defense Identification Zone, which rings most of North America.
Russia has simulated bombing runs against Sweden, invaded its air space time and time again. Fighter jets swoop in on NATO aircraft, violating both common sense and international law, roll to show off a weapons load, and then stick around until the West scrambles fighters to escort the Russians away.
Why would Russia be doing this? To test response time, of course. To intimidate and bully, certainly. To probe for weakness. What is their long game?
It’s about oil and power.
Recent discoveries of oil and gas under the sea floor in the arctic reveal that the area may contain up to 30% of the worlds oil reserves. Since much of the ice is melting, a new Northern Sea Route, an alternative to the Suez Canal is a real possibility.
Arctic Military Command
The Russian news agency RIA Novosti reports that a 6000 member force of permanent troops will be established in the Arctic region. Russia is reactivating Soviet bases in the area. They annexed an island last week, and are building air strips capable of supporting fighter jets. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on Tuesday, “We have moved into the Arctic rather actively and this year we shall have many units deployed along the Arctic Belt – in fact from Murmansk to the Chukotka Peninsula.” He went on to say,“This is fundamental, large-scale work.”
Russia is shifting it’s fleet, creating a new Northwest Command, which will protect it’s interest in the arctic region. Russian training exercises, including the use of paratroopers, has increased exponentially in the last year.
President Putin announced in September that Russia is developing new nuclear weapons and increasing its offensive capability. Russia’s nuclear deterrent and doctrine is based around the use of a First Strike. The United States has announced it will also increase it’s nuclear capabilities, and is developing weapons capable of striking targets anywhere in the world within an hour. Over the last year, both countries have increased the deployment of nuclear weapons.
Earlier this month, Russia announced it will not renew the twenty-year old Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, which was a crucial partnership between the United States and Russia to dismantle and decommission chemical and nuclear weapons. More than 7,600 warheads were dismantled under that program.
Now, both sides are building more nuclear weapons
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The Land Grab
Against this backdrop of threats and volatility and military buildup, a land grab is coming. Russia is going to try for more oil-rich land, and it’s going to happen in the north. They may try to invade one of the Baltic nations, testing NATO’s resolve. Russia could waltz into Sweden or Norway with little conventional resistance. Much of Europe is disarmed, relying on NATO and the United States for defense. But would the U.S. or NATO be willing to use nuclear weapons in that event? If Russia puts boots on the ground, supported by armored divisions and aircraft, how does that war end without one side resorting to the use of weapons of mass destruction? The use of a tactical nuke on a battlefield could lead in seconds to a retaliation and escalation.
There is always hope, and perhaps clear heads will indeed prevail.
I wrote about the outcome of such a conflict in my novel Objects of Wrath. If you are intrigued and terrified by this scenario, please check out my books!
The New Cold War
With Russian nationalism on the rise, troops and armor massed on the border of the Ukraine, and vitriolic rhetoric burning up the airwaves between Moscow and Washington, there is little doubt that the Cold War is once again very real. Russia has at least three thousand deliverable nuclear weapons, and the United States has somewhere around that number– more than enough to plunge the word into a nuclear winter. There seems to be the perception that the old Cold War doctrines of “Mutually assured destruction,” or MAD, and detente have fallen by the wayside and are no longer relevant, but that is not the case. The world is still a scary place, and right now, it’s the scariest it’s been since the Cuban Missile Crisis. The problem stems not only from the leadership,but from the people.
In the United States, President Obama is frequently called weak by the opposition. A casual stroll through social media will reveal a myriad of memes and posts declaring that the Commander in Chief is afraid of Putin, and that the United States should be doing more, whether in the Middle-East, or in Crimea. Conversely, within Russia, Putin is trying to shore up support for himself, and is appealing to lingering vestiges of pride many Russians still feel about the Soviet Union. This is a recipe for disaster. Two leaders squaring off with nuclear weapons, trying to prove a point.
Putin’s overly virile posturing, chest thrusting, bombastic aggressiveness might be laughable in other circumstances, yet the hawks within the U.S. seem to fixate on Putin’s pushiness and conclude that by comparison, President Obama is a weakling. Many of these people, including some of our elected officials, seem to think putting boots on the ground in Eastern Europe is a wonderful idea, that the United States should send more Aircraft Carriers into the region, including the Black Sea, and perhaps threaten direct military action backed by airstrikes and missiles. These hawks within the United States seem to have never cracked a history book, and they continue to howl about Obama’s capitulations, weakening the administration further, reducing our ability to act in a sensible fashion and further emboldening Russia. It’s ironic, and maddening. The notion that political dissension stops at the borders and does not extend to foreign policy is one of those Cold War rules that has indeed fallen away, and this makes the current international situation more volatile.
Yet the U.S. has imposed the toughest economic sanctions against Russia since the Cold War (technically) ended. The United States has two carrier groups in the region, and recently sent ships into the Black Sea.
Russian fighter jets buzzed a U.S. destroyer in the Black Sea, flying at a mere five hundred feet above the deck. Russian long range bombers have frequently violated U.S. airspace off the coast of Alaska. Subs carrying nuclear weapons engage in games of cat and mouse beneath the oceans, just off our shores. We can hope clear heads prevail. We can pray that some twenty-year-old sailor or pilot or soldier doesn’t make a mistake, a single push of a button which could unleash World War Three. That’s how it starts.
A global nuclear war will make all other wars in human history seem tame by comparison. What keeps me awake at night is that many people seem to have forgotten this.
Enjoy the Apocalypse!
Author Sean T. Smith 